AN ALIEN VISITING THE USA

I watched an interview on an American TV network with Tom Clark, Canadian Consul-General of New York, a few days after Mark Carney became our new Prime Minister. He was asked how Canadians are feeling about the US. His answer: “We’ve been punched in the nose by our best friend, and we’re trying to figure out why!”

We’ve been in Florida since the beginning of March and are observing this dispute between neighbours with great interest. We’ve been spending time here since 2016, and I can’t remember reading or seeing much about Canada in US media outlets. This year is very different.

I made a New Years resolution for 2025: try to understand why a majority of Americans voted for such a major change. I’ve heard the reason why described in very simple terms as “Too much woke, and too many broke”, and I think that covers it for many people. I’m purposely ignoring the character flaws of the man a majority of Americans chose as their President and am instead focusing on the changes he has promised to bring forward.

President Trump has many balls in the air in this country: federal government downsizing, spending reductions, energy self-sufficiency (in his words “Drill baby drill!”), border control, the war on drugs, deporting illegal immigrants, and the list grows every day. He has also disrupted the world order by intervening in very unexpected ways in the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israeli-Hamas conflict, in the NATO alliance, in US-European relations, and even toward the United Nations.

I don’t disagree with everything he’s done and proposes to do. The US shouldn’t be expected to be the peacemaker and rescuer of every ally that gets into trouble as well as the prime defender of Western-style democracy. Americans have decided that their focus must turn inward, for a time at least. And so, geopolitically, this is the most interesting period I can remember, and I fully intend to learn from it and keep an open mind.

When President Trump says he wants Canada to become the 51^st state, what does he really mean? What is his end game, and what does he really want if we resist these overtures, as I know we will?

Our two countries are so different that Elva and I have purposely avoided discussing four potentially contentious subjects here: politics, religion, health care, and gun control. Say the wrong thing to the wrong person and you might lose an acquaintance or, more importantly, a cycling buddy. This year, for the first time, we’re being asked by people what we think of what’s going on. My answer goes something like this: “I’ve made an effort to understand why a majority voted for such a major change and so strongly rejected the old order, I’m following things very closely, and I’m keeping an open mind.” To my surprise, this has prompted some very interesting exchanges, none of them thus far unpleasant.

So, where do we go from here? With Canada being essentially leaderless since Justin Trudeau announced he was stepping down, an unlikely ambassador entered the arena in the PM’s stead, Ontario Premier Doug Ford. He’s the Don Cherry of Canadian politics: direct, plain-spoken, and pugnacious. And we’ve seen the emergence of Dominic LeBlanc and Canada’s Ambassador to the US, Kirsten Hillman, both of whom have proven very effective in conveying our message to Washington officials. Now it’s up to Mark Carney to play the cards he’s been dealt, and that won’t be easy to do during an election campaign that will see him fight to not be the shortest-serving Prime Minister in Canadian history.

I’m not an economist and I don’t know what impact President Trump’s tariffs will have on our standard of living in the short term or the longer term. Most economists say they don’t know either and those who say they do are lying. But here’s an example I know something about.

Our family travelled to Arvida in the summer of 1989 while I attended Université Laval in Québec City. We were there to visit former neighbours of Elva’s who’d moved from Prince Edward Island to the Lac-Saint-Jean region many years before to find work. We spent time with an elderly gentleman who had worked in the aluminum plant, and he gave us the grand tour, explaining all aspects of the production process. 

The name Arvida is derived from the name of its founder, Arthur Vining Davis, president of Alcoa Corporation, an American company headquartered in Pittsburgh. Arvida was founded as an industrial city by Alcoa in 1927, when the first aluminum smelter was constructed. It was known as "The City Built in 135 Days" and described by The New York Times as a "model town for working families" on "a North Canada steppe". The smelter complex at Arvida was the biggest aluminum plant in the world from 1943 to 1975 and they produced two-thirds of the aluminum used by all the World War II Allied forces. I remember that from Grade 5 Canadian Geography!

The Alcoa story helps me understand the whole tariff question and how it will affect Canada and the US. Free trade is a recognition between two countries that each has its advantages and can use these to produce a good cheaper than the other. Sometimes that advantage is cheaper labour, other times it’s cheaper raw material. In the case of what were to become Arvida and the Alcoa aluminum smelter, the local advantage was cheap power derived from damming nearby rivers that flow into Lac-Saint-Jean.

Over 40% of the aluminum Alcoa produces comes from Arvida and, before the 25% tariff, all of that was sold in the US. Now, Alcoa, an American company, must find other markets since the aluminum produced in Arvida will be too expensive for its US customers. How does that make sense?

And with President Trump changing his mind on tariffs more often that he changes his ties, American companies like Alcoa can’t plan. Without stability, they can’t make the investments he expects them to make to bring production home and “Make America Great Again.” President Trump is a very intelligent man, a great dealmaker, and a master of using the media to his advantage but, thus far, I can’t see how his tariff war is going to make things better for the average American. He talks about a period of “transition” before things get better, but I believe he’s playing with fire. The stock market is the best barometer of corporate confidence and it’s not looking so hot these days.

Canada’s response to the threat of tariffs has been the strongest of any of the G7 countries, and the man responsible has done us a great service by uniting us against a common threat like never in my lifetime. Even Québec is feeling more Canadian these days, realizing that the provinces, the territories, and the federal government will be stronger if they work together. Although we know an extended tariff war will hurt us more than it will our American neighbours, Canada is ready for the battle ahead. As Mark Carney has said: “In trade as in hockey, Canada will win!”

Some Canadians believe we should boycott American products and avoid travel to the US as a way of retaliating against an unfriendly neighbour. Has anyone considered what would happen if our public pension plans followed the same approach and stopped investing in American firms? If so, I haven’t heard or read about it.

Both the Canada and Québec pension plans invest almost half their assets in American stocks and real estate. I’m sure the same is true of public service and teachers pension plans across Canada. Look at your own RRSP investments and see what percentage of the mutual funds you hold in them include investments in American companies. Boycotting American products and travel to the US may provide temporary satisfaction but the strategy quickly falls apart when you consider all the consequences of a complete withdrawal.

As for Canada becoming the 51^st state, this can only be a typo…

Elva and I first spent time here in 2016 to get away from the more miserable months of our long Prince Edward Island winter. We’re guests of a foreign country and we accept that. I’m a member of the Canadian Snowbird Association. Two weeks ago, I received an urgent message from them directing me to a new rule issued by US Customs and Border Protection, one that requires all Canadian visitors to apply for or retrieve a form called “I-94”. The order spread panic among Canadians already in the US or planning to come here. The media went crazy, implying that we’d have to be registered and get fingerprinted, or face a fine of $5,000 or six months in jail.

It turned out to be a red herring. The President’s executive order is part of his strategy to control the border and make it easier to deport illegal immigrants. It made us feel like “aliens” for a few days, but the feeling quickly passed. I put it down to the error of using a cleaver when a scalpel would have been better. I pity the poor bureaucrats who must operationalize the President’s many confusing and poorly-thought-out decisions. This was one of them.

Many friends and relatives have asked us why we’ve decided to spend time in a country that has no respect for ours. It’s simple. We worked hard all our lives and saved for a comfortable retirement, one that included travel to foreign countries and spending time in warmer climes. We discovered a lovely community in Ft. Myers and acquaintances who make us feel at home while we’re here. Yes, it may be seem selfish to spend money in a country led by a man that has no respect for us, but that’s not how Americans make us feel; those that voted for President Trump and those who didn’t. We only have so many good years left and to waste four while waiting for things to change would be foolish.

On March 9, we watched the Liberal leadership convention. Jean Chrétien, 91 years old and sharp as a tack, gave a political stump speech more in character with that of a campaigning politician than the elder statesman he is. It was Chrétien at his best, in complete control of his message and of his audience. My father-in-law, Jos Denis, would have risen from his chair several times at the punch lines and pumped his fist. His best line was directed at President Trump: “From one old guy to another old guy, stop this nonsense!”